Decentralized Wisdom. Verifiable Decisions.

Welcome to Futarchy

Harnessing evaluation and reward mechanisms to replace majority voting. Using markets to govern.

Trade on Outcomes, Not Votes

Futarchy uses conditional markets where investors buy or sell shares based on a proposal's potential success. These trading actions replace traditional votes, directly reflecting the market's belief in the proposal's impact on value.

Instead of voting, participants trade on a proposal's potential success. This market activity directly reflects collective belief in its impact.

Let Market Prices Decide

The collective trading activity reveals the proposal's expected financial impact. The outcome that is statistically predicted to maximize token value is the one that gets implemented, ensuring decisions benefit all shareholders.

Market prices reveal a proposal's expected financial impact. The outcome predicted to maximize value is chosen, benefiting all stakeholders.

An Evolutionary Approach

While initially serving as a powerful advisory tool for governance, Futarchy can evolve into a fully self-enforcing and autonomous system for making verifiably value-driven decisions.

Futarchy begins as a powerful advisory tool and can evolve into a fully autonomous system for value-driven decision-making.

How Does It Work?

Futarchy replaces subjective voting with objective market predictions to make verifiably better decisions.

The Problem: Flawed DAO Governance

Traditional voting favors insiders, offers no incentive for outside expertise, and leads to missed opportunities. Decisions often lack verifiable, value-driven justification.

Step 1: Trade on an Outcome

Instead of voting, participants trade on the outcome of a specific proposal. For example, 'What will be the impact on the token price if we approve this budget?'

Step 2: Conditional Markets are Created

Two prediction markets are established: one for the outcome if the proposal PASSES, and one for if it FAILS. The price in these markets represents the predicted future value of the DAO's token.

Step 3: 'Vote' with Your Capital

Participants buy shares in the market that reflects their belief. If you think a proposal will increase the token's value, you buy shares in the 'PASS' market. This is how you 'bet on beliefs'.

Step 4: The Market Aggregates Information

The collective trading from participants with 'skin in the game' drives the prices in each market, revealing a real-time prediction of the proposal's financial impact.

The Result: Value-Maximizing Decisions

The outcome whose market predicts the highest token value is automatically chosen. This ensures the decision is verifiably aligned with the interests of all stakeholders.

Guided by the Inventor of Futarchy

Robin Hanson - Chief Scientific Officer

Robin Hanson created the concept of futarchy in 2000 - using prediction markets for governance. As a professor at George Mason University and research associate at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, he developed the foundational theory of how markets can make better decisions than traditional voting or expert opinions.

"To embed such markets in the core of our form of government, we could 'vote on values, but bet on beliefs.'"

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